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Twenty-first
century weather forecasting presents a number of challenges.
Meteorologists need to:
- assess
a vast amount of data under strict time constraints,
- incorporate
predictive numerical modelling and their collective
experiential knowledge into the forecast process
- learn
from the forecast process, and
- meet
increasing user demand within limited resources.
This
project seeks to help forecasters meet these challenges
by changing the information technology paradigm which
has traditionally underpinned meteorology from one
exclusively comprised of predictive numerical models
to one which incorporates the knowledge and experience
of forecasters.
The
collaboration between Monash and the Bureau has already
led to the definition of the Mandala concept. Applied
to forecasting, this concept:
- provides
a model to reconceptualise the forecast process
where the major functions are monitor, predict,
produce and learn,
- models
the meteorologist's view of the process, in the
form of viewing, editing, producing and verifying,
-
represents the integration of the production of
a forecast with an understanding of the reasoning
behind it, and
- represents
learning loops at individual, group and organisational
levels.
A
goal of this project is to further develop the Mandala
concept to the point where it can be used as practical
design parameters for operational systems.
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